雖然是巧克力專飲店的論文,不過後面的市場分析應該會有些幫助吧!不過都是英文的 by幼琳

 

國立臺灣大學國際企業學研究所
碩士論文
Graduate Institute of International Business
College of Management
National Taiwan University
master’s thesis
巧克力專飲店在台灣的發展趨勢
The development of the Chocolate café in Taiwan
研究生: 李翊嘉
Helen Lee
指導教授﹕湯明哲
中華民國九十六年六月
June 2007
國立臺灣大學
國際企業所碩士論文巧克力專飲店在台灣的發展趨勢○○○ 撰
目 錄
口試委員會審定書 i
中文摘要 ii
英文摘要 iii
圖目錄 iv
表目錄 v
英文目錄 vi
第一章 緒論 1
1.1 背景 1
1.2 動機 2
1.2.1 台灣中小企業 2
1.2.2 折現現金流量技術 2
1.3 研究目的 4
1.4 研究方法 6
第二章 文獻回顧 7
2.1 術語 7
2.1.1 巧克力專飲店 7
2.1.2 主要參與者 8
.巧克哈客 8
.愛巧克 8
.完美比例 9
.iR Choco 9
.Awfully Chocolate 9
.Godiva Café 10
2.2 文獻 11
2.2.1 Porter 的一般性策略 11
2.2.2 奢華,正在流行 12
第三章 產業分析 14
3.1 產業背景 14
3.1.1 需求 14
.日本 17
.韓國 17
.中國大陸 17
.新加坡 18
3.1.2 供應 19
3.2 工業基礎 20
3.2.1 台灣 20
3.2.2 供應需求預測 24
3.2.3 可可價格 26
3.3 未來問題 27
第四章 研究成果 28
4.1 樣品概況 28
4.2 敘述統計 30
4.2.1 相關分析 30
4.2.2 t 檢定 31
4.2.3 一般線性模式的單變量分析 32
4.2.4 Profile Plots 33
4.3 實證結果 34
第五章 結論 40
5.1 討論 40
5.2 建議 41
5.2.1 基於調查 41
5.2.2 先佔優勢 42
5.2.3 位置 43
5.3 外在機會 46
5.4 研究限制 46
VI. 附錄 48
參考文獻 62
ii
巧克力專飲店在台灣的發展趨勢
摘要
本研究著重於調查巧克力專飲店在台灣的發展趨勢。由於現存文獻中,大多著手
於服務實景和顧客滿意度調查,而非相關產業的研究,因此,著重於此產業的研
究將對後續研究者或是經營者有相當的助益。本研究經過147份問卷,並且使用
相關分析、 t 檢定和線性單變數模型來導出所得彈性,結果發現,由於巧克力是
奢侈品,因此深受景氣和所得彈性影響。本研究也同時發現,另一個影響巧克力
消費習慣的是文化,但文化是可以由行銷活動引導的。本研究認為調查消費者的
意見如同開店位置的賽局理論一般,對於經營者來說,都是相當有益的資料。
iii
The development of the Chocolate café in Taiwan
Abstract
This study investigates the new trend in chocolate cafes appearing in Taiwan. The
existing literature does not look at a certain service industry but rather the servicescape
or customer satisfaction, so an investigation on the downstream’s effect on the
upstream chocolate industry may be of use to both industry insiders as well as the
chocolate café owners. Results showed that the chocolate café is a cyclical product and
as a luxury food item, chocolate consumption is affected by income elasticity. This
research was based on a questionnaire survey with 147 surveys completed. Correlation
analysis, t-test, and general linear model univariate analysis were used to determine the
proxy for income elasticity’s relationship to other variables. Another factor that affects
chocolate consumption is culture, but culture can be changed with marketing initiatives
by the industry. Using the survey participants’ responses as well as location strategies,
recommendations can also be offered to the chocolate café owners.
iv
List of Figures
1.1 Advantages and Challenges of Chocolate café industry 1
1.2.2 Discounted Cash Flow Analysis 3
1.3 Taiwan's GDP 4
1.3 Product Market Positioning Map 5
2.2.1 Porter's generic strategies 12
2.2.2 Trading up characteristics 13
2.2.2 Trading Up Demand curve 13
3.1.1 Per Capita Consumption vs. GDP per capita 14
3.1.2 2005/06 Production of Cocoa Beans 20
3.2.1 Consumption Trends 21
3.2.1 Distribution Channels 22
3.2.1 Trend in per capita consumption of chocolate in Taiwan 24
3.2.2 Supply-Demand Forecasts to 2010 with 1.10% Demand 25
3.2.2 Forecasts of Price and Stock-Grind Ratio with Demand 26
3.3 Cost percentages of a generic candy bar 27
3.3 Cocoa Processing Chain 28
4.1 Frequency in consumption 29
4.2.4 Profile Plots 33
4.2.4 Emotions 34
Appendix Survey 48
Appendix 您最愛買哪一種巧克力產品? 52
Appendix 您曾經去過「巧克哈客」嗎? 52
Appendix 您有去過國外的巧克力專賣店嗎? 52
Appendix 您會等到拿到薪水才去巧克力專飲店消費嗎? 53
Appendix 您通常會跟誰去巧克力專賣店? 53
Appendix 性別 53
Appendix 婚姻狀況 54
Appendix 年齡 54
Appendix 最高學歷 54
Appendix 工作類別 55
Appendix Exhibit 1 55
Appendix Exhibit 2 56
Appendix Exhibit 5 58
Appendix Exhibit 6 59
Appendix Exhibit 7 60
Appendix Exhibit 8 60
Appendix Exhibit 9 61
v
List of Tables
3.1.1 Japanese chocolate import/export statistics 16
3.2.2 Supply-Demand balances to 2010 assuming demand growth of
1.10% per annum 25
4.2.1 Correlation Analysis Table 30
4.2.2 T-test tables 32
4.2.3 Tests of Between-Subjects Effects 33
4.3 Favorite food items 36
4.3 Purchases 37
4.3 Order 39
4.3 Recommendations 40
Appendix Descriptive Statistics table 50
Appendix Levene's Test of Equality of Error Variances 50
Appendix Between-Subjects Factors 51
Appendix Estimated Marginal Means 51
Appendix Exhibit 3 56
Appendix Exhibit 4 57
vi
Table of Contents
I. Introduction 1
1.1 Background 1
1.2 Motivation 2
1.2.1 Taiwan's SME 2
1.2.2 Discounted Cashflow Analysis 2
1.3 Research Objectives 4
1.4 Research Procedure 6
II. Literature Review 7
2.1 Terms 7
2.1.1 Chocolate Café 7
2.1.2 Key Players 8
.Chocoholic 8
.Chocozing 8
.70% Chocolate Café 9
.iR Choco 9
.Awfully Chocolate 9
.Godiva Café 10
2.2 Literature 11
2.2.1 Porter's generic strategies 11
2.2.2 Trading Up 12
III. Industry Analysis 14
3.1 Industry Background 14
3.1.1 Demand 14
.Japan 17
.S. Korea 17
.China 17
.Singapore 18
3.1.2 Supply 19
3.2 Industry Fundamentals 20
3.2.1 Taiwan 20
3.2.2 Supply-Demand Forecasts 24
3.2.3 Cocoa Prices 26
3.3 Future Issues 27
IV. Research Results 28
4.1 Sample Profiles 28
vii
4.2 Descriptive Statistics 30
4.2.1 Correlation Analysis 30
4.2.2 T-test 31
4.2.3 GLM Univariate Analysis 32
4.2.4 Profile Plots 33
4.3 Empirical Results 34
V. Conclusion 40
5.1 Findings 40
5.2 Recommendations 41
5.2.1 Based on survey 41
5.2.2 Pre-emption Strategies 42
5.2.3 Location 43
5.3 Opportunities 46
5.4 Research Limitations 46
VI. Appendix 48
1
I. Introduction
1.1 Background
Business Weekly (商業周刊) reports that chocolate sales in Taiwan totaled $3.3
billion NT in 2006. With Berkshire Hathaway’s acquisition of See’s Candies, Lindt’s
Ghirardelli, and Hershey’s Scharffen Berger, the chocolate industry is currently in the
phase of heavy competition, mergers, market concentration, and globalization. Since
the 1990s, two hundred mergers/acquisitions have taken place worldwide so that only
seventeen chocolate manufacturers now hold sway over the global market (Fold 408).
In order to survive in this type of environment, domestic retailers have increased the
number of direct imports to avoid the higher cost of import/wholesale purchasing.
According to Uni-president Product Manager Sophie Shen (沈幸柔), there is room for
growth because Taiwan’s average annual consumption is only at 0.5 kg compared to
Japan’s 1 kg per capita, which surpasses Australia as an export market for Swiss
chocolate (李盈穎). For instance, the development of Taiwan’s café industry in recent
years created a niche market for specially imported chocolate products. In November
2006, Godiva opened a test café at the Breeze Center ( 微風廣場) in order to
accommodate luxury consumers after shopping. In addition, Chocoholic just opened
its second café at Dunhua S. Road (敦化南路). However, as 天下notes, “The various
coffee shops and bakeries lack differentiation, so customers find it difficult to
distinguish among them” (Hsieh).
Advantages Challenges
Consumers consider western products Tariffs on foreign imports (10%)
to be of good quality
Fascination with western culture Lacking knowledge of high-end
brands by consumers
2
1.2 Motivation
1.2.1 Taiwan’s SME
Since many of Taiwan’s manufacturing industries have moved to China, the
service industries hold greater importance for the island. From 2003-2004, Taiwan’s
eating establishments had an 11.76% increase in revenue (Taiwan Institute of
Economic Research). While 2005-2006 only showed 5.33% increase in yearly sales,
the restaurant industry still exhibited positive growth (MOEA). According to Su-wan
Wang’s research, nearly 80,000 new small businesses open in Taiwan annually,
approximately 20% of them being eating establishments. During times of economic
decline, eating establishments were still able to hold their own: “Even during the Asian
Financial Crisis, there was no significant reduction seen in the number of new firms
being established” (Wang 313). Most of the chocolate cafes that opened in Taiwan are
independent businesses: Wang explains that most new firms in Taiwan are SME (small
to medium enterprises) because the majority of entrepreneurs are unable to secure
financing from local banks. On the rare occasion that an entrepreneur does receive an
external loan, it is usually through the Small-Medium Enterprises Credit Guarantee
Fund (317). Since SMEs carry such a significant role in the Taiwanese economy and
large Taiwanese firms are unlikely to release their data to outsiders, I decided to
research the market trend of my favorite food item: chocolate.
1.2.2 Discounted Cash Flow Analysis
Using the information given by the newspapers on Chocoholic’s initial
investment and rent expenditures, I was able to estimate the amount of profit and loss
made by a chocolate café. I assumed customers would come in pairs and spend, on
average, $350 NT for two drinks and a cake based on menu prices ranging from a
minimum of $100 NT to a high of $500 NT. The café business hours are 67 hours per
3
week for an assumed 50 weeks a year (excluding holidays)—totaling 3,350 hours per
year. Chocoholic can hold approximately 20 patrons whom are assumed to sit for an
hour per visit. At full capacity, the café is expected to earn $11,725,000 NT per year;
however, I assumed that for the first year, utilization would only be at 50%; second
year, 55%; thereafter, 60%. Prior to the opening, it is estimated that the $3,000,000 NT
initial investment was spent on remodeling, furniture, cookware, and other capital
purchases. All other costs were based on a sample plan of a café given by the New
Hampshire Small Business Development Center, except for labor. I assumed that for
the first year, only the owners would be working as full-time employees. After the first
year, the owners would then add one additional staff member per year until the
maximum of three employees was reached at a cost of $100 NT per hour. The discount
factor was based on Thornton’s 2000 annual report because while the chocolatier
operates at a much larger and public scale than any of Taiwan’s cafes, it is located
solely in England and has the same business model. From the above assumptions, the
following was derived:
1st year 2nd year 3rd year 4th year 5th year
Initial Investment NT$ (3,000,000)
Average tab per table NT$ 350 NT$ 350 NT$ 350 NT$ 350 NT$ 3 50
Hours per year 3350 3350 3350 3350 3350
Number of tables 10 10 10 10 10
Total capacity NT$ 11,725,000 NT$ 11,725,000 NT$ 11,725,000 NT$ 11,725,000 NT$ 1 1,725,000
Estimation of utility NT$ 5,862,500 NT$ 6,448,750 NT$ 7,035,000 NT$ 7,035,000 NT$ 7,035,000
Cash Paid out
Food purchases NT$ 2,016,000 NT$ 2,016,000 NT$ 2,016,000 NT$ 2,016,000 NT$ 2,016,000
Gross wages NT$ - NT$ 335,000 NT$ 6 70,000 NT$ 1,005,000 NT$ 1,005,000
Supplies NT$ 48,000 NT$ 48,000 NT$ 48,000 NT$ 48,000 NT$ 48,000
Repairs/Maintenance NT$ 16,500 NT$ 16,500 NT$ 16,500 NT$ 16,500 NT$ 16,500
Advertising NT$ 66,000 NT$ 66,000 NT$ 66,000 NT$ 66,000 NT$ 66,000
Rent NT$ 720,000 NT$ 720,000 NT$ 7 20,000 NT$ 720,000 NT$ 720,000
Telephone/Internet NT$ 36,000 NT$ 36,000 NT$ 36,000 NT$ 36,000 NT$ 36,000
Utilities NT$ 144,000 NT$ 144,000 NT$ 1 44,000 NT$ 144,000 NT$ 144,000
Insurance NT$ 90,000 NT$ 90,000 NT$ 90,000 NT$ 90,000 NT$ 90,000
Loan Principal/Interest NT$ 215,160 NT$ 215,160 NT$ 2 15,160 NT$ 215,160 NT$ 215,160
Total Cash payout NT$ (3,000,000) NT$ 3,351,660 NT$ 3,686,660 NT$ 4,021,660 NT$ 4,356,660 NT$ 4,356,660
Cash Balance NT$ (3,000,000) NT$ 2,510,840 NT$ 2,762,090 NT$ 3,013,340 NT$ 2,678,340 NT$ 2,678,340
Discount factor 7% 1.000 0.935 0.873 0.816 0.763 0.713
Present Val NT$ (3,000,000) NT$ 2,346,579 NT$ 2,412,516 NT$ 2,459,783 NT$ 2,043,293 NT$ 1,909,619
NPV NT$ 8,171,791
4
1.3 Research Objectives
In order to determine the market demand for chocolate cafes, chocolate that is
more expensive and of presumed better quality than the convenience store brands will
need to be identified as either a cyclical, non-cyclical, or countercyclical good.
Starbucks is considered to be a cyclical product because its sales patterns tend to
magnify due to changes in the GDP. On the other hand, Cadbury Schweppes and
Hershey’s are both considered non-cyclical because as consumer non-durables, they
roughly follow the national GDP. It is also possible for the chocolate café to be
countercyclical like lipstick; women traditionally purchase the luxury item when there
is an economic recession (Nelson).
Taiwan's GDP
-300%
-250%
-200%
-150%
-100%
-50%
0%
50%
100%
150%
200%
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
Year
The above figure shows Taiwan’s GDP changes according to the EconStats webpage.
Lindt’s 2003 annual report noted the same pattern, “It remains to be hoped that in the
chocolate industry, too, the slow recovery of the economy will have a positive
influence on the general climate, strengthening the confidence of consumers and
making private households more comfortable with spending money” (5). Godiva
conceded the same problem in Campbell’s Soup 2003 Annual Report, “Growth
5
Price –
continued to be affected by softness in consumer spending for luxury goods” (2).
While it appears that the chocolate café could be a cyclical product, tobacco companies
are considered non-cyclical because of their addictive product—the same could be said
of chocolate. In a 1996 study, neuroscientist Daniele Piomelli reported that chocolate
contains anandamide, the same chemical found in marijuana (Brain cannabinoids in
chocolate). It may be possible that the formation and reinforcement of anandamide
neurotransmitter pathways in the brain could create an addiction. However, my survey
results will give a clearer picture as to the cyclical nature of chocolate cafes.
Product Market Positioning Map
Price +
Godiva
Awfully Chocolate
Quality - Chocoholic Chocozing iR Choco Cafe Quality +
70% Chocolate cafe
As more chocolate cafes open, the four cafes (Chocoholic, Chocozing, iR Choco Café,
and 70% Chocolate café) will have to find other ways to differentiate themselves since
they are all positioned towards the middle. They tend to have nearly the same prices
and menu items; their focus also tends to be chocolate beverages. Thus, my survey will
be asking customers what they want to see on the menu. Finally, this paper aims at
suggesting ways for the cafes to improve their survival rates as well as chocolate
consumption through marketing and location strategies.
6
1.4 Research Procedure
Since it would be unreliable and possibly unattainable for me to ask my
respondents if they consumed more or less chocolate three to five years ago during
Taiwan’s economic recession, I decided to use an estimate for income elasticity
because it would be foolhardy to rely on a survey to determine if respondents’ change
in salaries had an effect on their consumption of chocolate due to memory problems,
time constraints, and biased responses. I asked my respondents if they would wait until
they received their monthly salaries before visiting a chocolate shop with the
assumption that with lower income levels, most respondents would wait. Since I was
unable to gain the chocolate café owners approval to distribute surveys during business
hours, I posted my survey on BBS requesting chocolate lovers to please fill out my
survey so that I could make a quantitative analysis of my results. I might have gained
better results using non-probability convenience sampling because the participants
were not coerced into filling out a survey; it was an anonymous poll so I did not know
who was responding.
Assuming there are more than 100,000 chocolate consumers in Taipei, I settled
on a sample size of 147 based on Taro Yamane’s table for a precision level of ±10%
where confidence level is 95% and p= .05 (Statistics, An Introductory Analysis).
During the pre-test period, I tested eight surveys on respondents for wording issues
with the survey. In the end, I obtained 147 surveys after eliminating eleven more
because the respondents said that they did not consume chocolate on a weekly basis.
Please see the appendix for the entire survey. Questions 1 (您最喜歡的食物是什麼?),
3 (您最愛買哪一種巧克力產品?), 7 (您通常會點什麼巧克力產品?), and 8 (您會推
薦什麼樣的巧克力產品在店家的目錄?) will determine the positioning for the stores.
The other questions from 2-9 were to test the respondent’s intensity of preference for
7
chocolate. Most of the questions were categorical so that I could obtain varied
suggestions from the respondents. Question 10 (您在什麼時候會想吃巧克力?) was
asked in case it was a dependent variable in the purchase of chocolate. Question 11 (您
會等到拿到薪水才去巧克力專飲店消費嗎?) acts as a proxy for income elasticity.
While annual salary would have been a good question to ask, it is also a sensitive
question, and I did not want to alienate my respondents. Questions 12-17 simply
gather demographic information.
II. Literature Review
2.1 Terms
2.1.1 The Chocolate Cafe
In 2002, Taipei saw the emergence of the chocolate café; the city has a way to
go before it nears the numbers in the United States. Mars Inc. has invested in ten
Illinois and eleven Nevada locations for its high end Ethel’s Chocolate Lounge; the
president of the Ethel brand, John Haugh, says that they are planning to expand to LA,
Dallas, and Atlanta because of stagnant growth in mass merchandised candy (Robison).
Independent businesses such as South Bend Chocolate Company has twenty franchises
throughout the Midwest, while Moonstruck Café—also noted by one of the surveys—
has nine locations scattered around Oregon and California. Nonetheless, the Taiwanese
consumer has come a long way from being just satisfied with Hunya (宏亞) chocolate
compounds. Foreign high-end chocolatiers see potential in the Taiwanese market: the
high-end French chocolate retailer Valrhona had $10 million NT in year-end sales after
opening in 2005 (李盈穎). In Asia, interest in chocolate like other connoisseur food
items (wine, cheese, coffee) has increased. With the success of niche dessert outlets
such as Mr. Donuts and Häagen-Dazs ice cream, it appears that gourmet chocolate
might be the next trend in Taiwan. In addition, the ubiquity of Starbucks in Taiwan
8
and Quickly bubble tea chains in the US has cleared the path for a chocolate café.
Dartmouth’s Amos Tuck School of Business Administration notes that 10% of the
chocolate industry is made up of gourmet products (Friedrick 14). Guangzhou China
will be holding the first “China Chocolate Peak” in August 2007 to discuss the
industry’s potential in Asia. According to Swiss chocolate producer Barry Callebaut,
“The Chinese market is already the second biggest in the [Asian] region” with
consumption at 0.7 kg per capita (Patton, Barry Callebut). Since both China and Japan
have developed a taste for chocolate, it appears that Taiwan’s chocolate consumption
will continue to grow. The chocolate café was defined as a location where consumers
can sit and eat chocolate. While there are many places that offer chocolate desserts, the
chocolate café’s menu has over 80% chocolate items. For instance, Billie Chick (比利
小雞) was named by one of the respondents; however, it is actually a bakery that
specializes in cakes with odd shapes (cars, skull, animals) and various flavors.
2.1.2 Key Players
• Chocoholic (巧克哈客) has two cafes in Taipei. In 2002, Chocoholic was the
first all chocolate café to open in Taiwan. Both partners invested $1.5 million
NT each into the venture and recouped their investment in 2 years. They went
to Europe to research their recipes for their menus and decorated the café with
European only items. The owner has chosen locations with lots of traffic in
order to gain customers (永康街). Most of its customers are middle class
women, so it also sells mass consumed Meiji chocolate. Other than having a
musical website with news updates, the owner does not advertise.
• Chocozing ( 愛巧克) was opened by the former partner of Chocoholic in
December 2005. The menu is similar to Chocoholic except that Chocozing has
9
chosen to target more affluent customers. Since it is located at 中山北路,
across from high-end retailers Louis Vuitton and Gucci, most of its customers
are older working professionals. In order to accommodate them, Chocozing has
added Movenpick as its ice cream of choice. The owner uses a blog as its
website and also does not advertise.
• 70% Chocolate café ( 完美比例) is differentiating itself through cost with
approximately 20% decrease in prices as compared to Chocoholic and
Chocozing. Since it is located in an area with less traffic from tourists and
locals ( 南京東路4 段69 號), it hopes that the lower prices will bring in
customers. An Australian overseas Chinese opened the café in late January
2006. Since it also does not advertise, it only has a website that sends email
newsletters to subscribers.
• iR Choco Café brands itself as a Swiss product due to the well-known core
competency of the country’s chocolates. Not only does the café use the Swiss
flag as its logo, the owner also publicizes her half-Swiss heritage as a way to
sell her café. With the exception of Godiva, it is the only other café to promote
its own private label boxed chocolates. Like Chocozing, it has chosen a
location (忠孝東路) where the buyers have plenty of leisure time and money to
spend so most of its clientele are older socialites. iR Choco is the newest player
in the chocolate market, opening in November 2006.
• Awfully Chocolate is a franchise chocolate cake shop from Singapore. The
Taiwan franchiser, former singer Stella Huang (黃湘怡), receives plenty of free
press from media outlets as well as her pop star friends. When it first opened in
February 2006, she had her fellow pop singers come to the opening ceremony.
10
Her friend 林俊傑 ordered 88 cakes as a publicity stunt, giving the shop even
more attention. Huang invested $4 million NT into the franchise and recouped
her investment in four months, so she opened another shop in Neihu (內湖).
Even if the chocolate café does not become a worldwide franchise, it is clear
from the above examples that profit can be made from the café. While Awfully
Chocolate has opened a brick and mortar shop for advertising purposes, it
operates like the Dell business model with limited inventory and made-to-order
products. Customers are requested to order online or via phone three days in
advance for three types of chocolate cakes. The shop itself is sparse with no
cakes on display and only two seats to accommodate the random visitor whom
walks in for chocolate ice cream, again only one flavor. Awfully Chocolate’s
value proposition is a “pop star cake shop”.
• Godiva Chocolatier has extended it brand name to a café at the Breeze Center (微
風廣場) and only supplier in Taiwan to venture into the chocolate café
establishment. The Breeze Center’s management actually approached Godiva
Asia’s managing director with the idea because “they noticed that not all their
customers love going to Starbucks. For ladies who shop at Cartier, Gucci or
Prada, they want a more premium and special place to sit down and enjoy those
quiet moments and relax for 20 minutes” (Lin). Since the Breeze Center’s
Godiva outlet is the best performing in all of Taiwan, the managing director
thought it would be a good location to test out the first Godiva café worldwide.
Thus, Godiva café has positioned itself as the “third place even more luxurious
than Starbucks”.
With the exception of Godiva and Awfully Chocolate, the other cafes are hoping to
position themselves as a “third place” like Starbucks except with chocolate as its
11
mainstay instead of coffee. Thus, Chocoholic, Chocozing, 70% Chocolate café, and iR
Choco Café are expecting to have mass consumers—as BCG instructs “seek higher
price points and higher volumes” (7). The cafes are either “accessible super-premium”
which are products priced at or near the top of their category or “masstige goods”
which command a premium to conventional products but are priced below superpremium
goods (BCG website).
2.2 Literature
2.2.1 Porter’s Generic Strategies
Most of the past literature concerning Taiwan’s restaurants has been examining
service quality rather than the niche market’s positioning and economic trends. As
Kathy Yuchi Chu and Yu-Fong Tsai note in 「高級餐廳顧客與服務人員關係品質之
研究」, approximately 90% of Taiwan’s restaurants do not last five years (225).
Chocoholic is the only café that has been open nearly five years, so an investigation as
to how these restaurants can position themselves to last five years may be helpful. The
focus of this study will be on Michael Porter’s segmentation and differentiation
strategies for the café owners. Since imported chocolate tends to be a high-end product,
it is best for the owners not to concentrate on low prices. In addition, cost leadership
usually only works when volumes can support the low margins, which is unlikely to
happen in the chocolate café industry. As there can only be one cost leader in the
industry, 70% Chocolate café has already priced its menu to be the lowest available.
The following is based on Porter’s Competitive Strategy: Techniques for Analyzing
Industries and Competitors:
12
Uniqueness competency Low cost competency
BCG has also noted that differentiation is needed for fragmented industries such as
cafes because opportunities for competitive advantage are small (Kotler 317). As there
is only one important food item in the café—chocolate—the industry has already
placed itself in a narrow market scope; thus, the industry must compete on the
segmentation strategy. However, in order for a certain café to survive in this industry,
it must compete on differentiation, which I will be looking at through customer
surveyed preferences.
2.2.2 Trading Up
The Boston Consulting Group has noticed a new phenomenon of consumers
willing to pay a premium (20-200%) for marginally higher quality items. This can be
seen in the Taiwanese consumers purchasing of Nine West shoes, Body Shop
cosmetics, as well as hotel buffets. In its “Trends, Brands, and Practices 2004 Research
Update”, BCG explains, “These brands move off the traditional demand curve, selling
with higher margins than conventional goods and in higher quantities than superpremium
competitors” (4). The report noted that as a country’s GDP expands, so will
the purchases of premium products, which should also apply to the Taiwan market.
BCG rationalizes that the increase in the number of middle class consumers has created
a new genre of goods called “New Luxury”—medium to upper margin, high volume
goods. The following chart clarifies the different characteristics among the genres:
Segmentation
Strategy
Differentiation Cost
Strategy Leadership
Narrow
Market
Scope
Broad
Market
Scope
13
Old Luxury New Luxury
Conventional Goods
Price
New Luxury Conventional Old Luxury
Affect Engaging Empty Aloof
Availability Affordable Ubiquitous Exclusive
Price Premium Low-Cost Expensive
Quality Mass-Artisan Mass-produced Hand-made
Social Basis Value-driven Conformist Elitist
In order to qualify as a “new luxury” item, the product must be well designed, of higher
quality, and engage the consumer emotionally. A “new luxury” item such as gourmet
chocolate fulfils the consumer’s emotional space of “taking care of me”. BCG argues
that the “new luxury” brands shatter the price-volume demand curve by polarizing the
categories; conventional items become cheaper while “old luxury” goods lose volume.
If the category (travel, accessories, appliances, ect.) is not important to the consumer,
she is willing to trade down in order to save money for the category she is interested in.
As one chocolate lover remarked, “One good piece of chocolate is worth 22 Hershey’s
bars”. BCG calls the combination of spending on both high and low ticket items or
spending habits not conforming to income levels—“disharmony of consumption”. The
consulting group sees the demand curve as follows:
Volume
14
III. Industry Analysis
3.1 Industry Background
3.1.1 Demand
According to LMC International Ltd., an economic research consultancy, higher
consumption levels depend on rising incomes, lower import duties, advertising
expenditures, product variety as well as improved transportation methods due to the
high humidity and temperatures in Taiwan (13). Gray correlates countries with higher
per capita income with higher consumption: “In general, a US $1000 increase in
income leads to 100 g rise in annual per capita consumption” as shown in the following
diagram. Ironically, the African countries that produce the cocoa beans for the
chocolate are rarely the ones that consume the end product. Taiwan’s per capita
consumption is probably in the same league as S. Korea’s and will continue to grow
with increasing GDP.
Per Capita Consumption vs. GDP per capita
Bulgaria
S. Korea
Finland
New Zealand
UK
Austria
USA
Canada
Japan
Switzerland
Belgium
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000
GNP per capita (US$)
Furthermore, consumption levels tend to be highly correlated to whether the country
domestically manufactures chocolate, which is most likely due to the amount of
marketing spent on local markets. For instance, the Japanese chocolate producer
15
Meiji—7th worldwide manufacturer in sales—helps stimulate its country’s 1 kg per
capita consumption while S. Korea’s Lotte Confectionary, number ten on the list,
induces 0.6 kg (“Top 100 Global Confectionary Companies”, Exhibit 1). In
comparison, #2 Nestle, helps create over 9 kg per capita Swiss demand for chocolate.
It took seven years for Switzerland to double its consumption rate from a measly 1 kg
in 1905—thanks to the marketing efforts of the chocolate industry (Chocology 15).
From 1905, chocolate consumption increased with an arithmetic mean of 30% per
decade as shown in Exhibit 2. Moreover, from 1993 to 1997, the International Cocoa
Organization (ICCO) funded a $645,000 US project to stimulate Japan’s chocolate
consumption by changing the negative connotations of chocolate—acne, cavities, and
weight gain—through direct mail, TV advertising, and exhibitions (“Generic
Promotion” 5-6). Although the ICCO did not meet their goal because of the Asian
Financial Crisis’s impact, the ICCO did curb the decline of chocolate consumption.
• Japan
In recent years, European chocolatiers have been flocking to Japan in order to open
chocolate cafes. French Pascal Caffet has five locations in Japan, while Jean-Paul
Hevin has three: Kyusha, Toyko, Hiroshima. The famous La Maison Du Chocolat
with worldwide locations in Europe and the US has included two in Tokyo, while
Belgian Neuhaus has one café. Even the Belgian Pierre Marcolini and Spanish
Oriol Balaguer independent cafes have started businesses in Japan. Thus, chocolate
giant Meiji is also testing out a café called 100% Chocolate Café near Tokyo station.
Japan’s chocolate café industry is highly competitive and saturated with
approximately 74 listings in the country. According to the Japanese Chocolate and
Cocoa Association, Japan’s consumption per capita reached 1.86 kg in 2005, and it
appears there will be plenty of demand to accommodate the recent surge in cafes.
16
Year
Domestic
production
(ton) Import (ton)
Export
(ton)
Domestic
consumption
(ton)
Annual
consumption/person (kg)
1990 180,000 15,311 662 194,649 1.58
1991 197,000 12,100 1,276 207,824 1.68
1992 195,000 12,978 902 207,076 1.66
1993 191,100 13,940 701 204,339 1.64
1994 181,500 15,341 646 196,195 1.57
1995 187,000 16,228 592 202,636 1.61
1996 191,700 17,715 741 208,674 1.66
1997 189,500 17,413 958 205,955 1.63
1998 190,500 15,730 1,514 204,716 1.62
1999 200,600 16,261 1,830 215,031 1.7
2000 217,000 17,960 1,678 233,282 1.84
2001 223,600 17,331 1,904 239,027 1.88
2002 213,500 19,091 1,996 230,595 1.81
2003 217,800 19,550 2,204 235,146 1.84
2004 218,110 20,323 2,946 235,487 1.84
2005 222,020 19,912 3,812 238,120 1.86
*Domestic production and consumption volume depends on the number of Japanese
manufacturers
The Japanese take pride in their own chocolate history with the Japanese Chocolate
and Cocoa Association dating the beginnings of domestic manufacturing with the
1899 opening of Morinaga & Co, Ltd. followed by 1918’s Meiji. According to the
International Cocoa Organization, chocolate takes up 12% of the snack market in
Japan of which 70% is held by five domestic manufacturers (“Generic Promotion”
2-3). Traditionally, women give men chocolate on Valentine’s Day—the opposite
of most countries due to a misunderstanding of European customs in the 1940s.
Time notes that, on average, Japanese women spend $56 US on their significant
other as well as male co-workers on February 14 (Sekiguchi). It has become an
obligation for most women in Japan; thus, the chocolate is called “giri-choco” (義
理チョコ). Nonetheless, a Takashimaya department store representative also
observed, “There’s been a trend the past two or three years for women to buy
chocolates for themselves, as a sort of pat on the back for having worked hard” as
shown in Exhibit 3.
17
• S. Korea
In 2006, Hershey's brand Dagoba partnered with Café des Verts of Korea to open
“Dagoba Organic Chocolate Concept Bar” with over seven locations in Seoul as
well as two Hyundai department stores (Shin). Over 80% of the market is
dominated by domestic producers presumably because of the consumers’ national
pride; exhibit 4 shows the country’s import/export statistics on chocolate in
comparison to other Asian countries (UN Statistics Division). Lotte Confectionary
Co. leads the market followed by Hai Tai, Tong Yang and Crown. China's National
Candy Association claims that in 2007, S. Korea's per capita consumption reached
1.4 kg. Koreans like other Asians have traditionally preferred milk chocolate. In
2006, Koreans spent 300 billion won on chocolate—a 10% increase from the
previous year (Korean Broadcasting Station). In the last decade, the younger
generation of Koreans have also been influenced by the Japanese as Korean girls
now give chocolates to men on Valentine's Day.
• China
Most chocolate manufacturers are looking to China for their future growth
opportunities: both Barry Callebut and the Lotte/Hershey joint venture have located
factories in Shanghai in order to meet future demand. Not to be outdone, Mars has
sponsored a website in order to educate burgeoning Chinese consumers on
chocolate. In the past, chocolate only came in bulk form, so some department
stores would dump their chocolate into candy bins because they sold better en
masse (Moustakerski). A 7-11 store manager in Beijing notes, “Dove and Nestle
are the most popular here” (Levy). The Mars brand of Dove was the first to explain
to Chinese consumers that chocolate did not have too much “yang” in it, so it could
be consumed at anytime, which also explains why Dove is the market leader with
18
38.61% market share (China Daily). Dove’s advertising campaign also exemplifies
how culture can be changed by marketing. Mar’s Dove is followed by Cadbury,
and Nestle—all early movers in the market. Cadbury and Nestle also have
competitive advantages in ensuring traceability and supplies by vertically
integrating cocoa grinding into their manufacturing processes (Kaplinsky 22).
According to the market research group Sinomonitor International, ten brands hold
90% of the chocolate market: in addition to foreign brands such as Hershey’s,
Ferrero Rocher’s Tresor Dore and Mars M&Ms, local ones like Shenzhen’s Le
Conte, Golden Monkey, and Shenfeng hold sway. Dove, Cadbury, and Le Conte
carry two-thirds of the market. The consumers seem to be responding as Beijing
has its own Chocolate Appreciation Society where members meet at various cafes,
such as Café Sequoia and Luna Lounge, to sample chocolate; attendance has
numbered to about thirty people per gathering. Shanghai has its own independent
chocolate café called Whisk. The Chinese prefer to give chocolate as gifts for
weddings or on holidays such as National Day, Labor Day, Children’s Day, New
Year’s Day (Moustakerski). The research group Euromonitor estimates that gifts
account for 40% of all retail sales (Patton, New Snack). Again, Dove leads in the
chocolate gifts category with 40.2% market share due to the popularity of the 32g
Dove Hearts (China Daily).
• Singapore
With its large foreign population in a country of 4.5 million people, Singapore is
scattered with chocolate cafes. For instance, domestic manufacturer Chocz. Pte Ltd.
has six cafes in the country, while the famous Max Brenner opened one of the first
in the Asian region. There are also independent cafes such as The Chocolate
Factory and Canele Patisserie Chocolaterie in addition to hotel style chocolate
19
buffets at the Fullerton and Swissotel Merchant Court. In 1996, chocolate
consumption was at 3.1 kg per capita, which is again most likely due to the large
expatriate community in the country (Milherou 6). According to a TGI survey,
21% of the population eats chocolate at least once a week—most of the chocolate
consumed by women (2). Multinational chocolate manufacturers tend to locate in
Singapore because as an Indonesian cocoa exporter remarked, “[Singapore has]
access to cocoa bean sources, world class connectivity and infrastructure, proximity
to port and high food safety standards” (Reuters). The cocoa sources include
Malaysia and Indonesia.
3.1.2 Supply
Indonesia is the third largest producer of cocoa beans—accounting for 13% of the
world’s supply because of low production costs. Since Indonesia is such an important
supplier, the parent company of Mars Inc, Masterfoods also provided technical training
and best practices to some of the farmers in the Noling village (Kula 48). According to
the ICCO website, the cost of producing 50 kg of dried cocoa beans is 79 rupiah. The
majority of producers are small farmers who obtain half to 85% of the world price on
sales (MC/6/4 28). Indonesia’s government also supports the cultivation of the beans
with land clearance schemes, land grants, and tax exemptions in order to generate
export revenues (Oxfam 11). However, the lack of pest control for the moth, Cocoa
Pod Borer, affects the levels that Indonesia can grow its supplies (Gray 7). While
Indonesia has the ideal weather—rainforest climate—for the production of cocoa beans,
the high humidity and temperatures would destroy chocolate. Since chocolate needs
mild climate to last, it is mostly produced in the northern countries.
20
2005/06 Production of Cocoa Beans (000 tonnes)
Cameroon
4%
Cote d'Ivoire
39%
Ghana
20%
Nigeria
5%
Brazil
4%
Ecuador
4%
Others
8%
Indonesia
13%
Malaysia
3%
Malaysia accounts for only 3% of world output because high labor costs—the majority
cost in production—and low international prices caused most farmers to stop cocoa
production (Gray 4). Due to the liberalization of the market economies, international
commodity prices largely determine farmer prices for their crops now. While Malaysia
may only be a minor producer, the country’s farmers obtain a much higher share of the
world price than Indonesia does—over 80% because of low taxation and a more
transparent market system (MC/6/4 28). However, lacking economies of scale,
Malaysia has lowered their production from over 200,000 tonnes to only 30,000 per
year.
3.2 Industry Fundamentals
3.2.1 Taiwan
Chocolate consumption in Taiwan has slowly been increasing over the past few
years. In 2001, chocolate sales dropped significantly due to the country’s economic
slowdown and higher value of the Taiwan dollar, but revenues returned with a 13%
increase in 2002 (Hsueh 3). The USDA Foreign Agricultural Service GAIN report also
21
noted that the SARS impact in March 2003 decreased candy imports to 3% from
January to July 2003. The high-end chocolate producer Lindt noticed the same trend.
In its 2003 annual report, the CEO remarked:
The world economy is on the road to short-term cyclical recovery and consumer
sentiment has slightly improved. The US, the Asian industrial countries and
Great Britain are the areas in which significant growth is expected to happen first
(5).
It appears that the growth in high-end chocolate is increasing with Porcelena del
Pedregal selling over 100 boxes of $3,600 NT chocolates in 2006 (李盈穎). The
market has matured and consumers are beginning to demand a wider variety of
chocolate products.
Chocolate consumption tends to be seasonal. Peak chocolate season is from
November to February due to the holidays: Christmas, Lunar New Year, and
Valentine’s Day. During peak season, 40% of year round candy sales are generated
(Hsueh 2). Taiwanese customers like the Chinese prefer to give imported chocolate as
gifts.
Consumption Trends
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
5000
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Month
22
According to United Daily News, the drugstore Watsons supplies 70% of all
chocolate consumed in Taiwan annually (Taiwan Investment Biweekly). Only a small
amount of gourmet chocolates is sold at department stores or specialty retailers.
Taiwan’s Food Industry Research & Development Institute’s survey indicated that
Taiwanese consumers frequented convenience stores the most for purchasing
chocolates, which was also confirmed by my own survey. 7-11, being the winner in
chocolate sales, has $200,000 NT in daily revenues on the candy bar’s sales alone (李
盈穎). The USDA GAIN reports that most importers operate an in-house sales team to
sell nearly 65% of their goods directly to the retail chain stores (7-11, Watsons,
Wellcome). The remaining percentage is then sold through regional
wholesalers/distributors to retailers (Hsueh 3).
The GAIN report noted that an estimated 60% of chocolate is imported from
abroad. Gourmet chocolates differ from regular chocolates based on cocoa origin,
cocoa content, and production process. Taiwan imports most of its chocolate from
Europe: Italy (Ferrero Rocher, Scaccomatto, Prenicotti) was the largest supplier at 18%
market share; Dutch Droste, 6%; France’s Valrhona, 2% (Hsueh 4). Japanese
manufacturers capture another 10% of the chocolate market (Taiwan Headlines). As
with wine or coffee, chocolate consumers can armchair quest, vicariously visiting
destinations such as Belgium, Mexico, Ecuador, Switzerland, ect. Like wine and
coffee producers, chocolate manufacturers are also aggressively trying to educate their
Foreign
Exporter
Taiwan
Importer
Wholesale/
Distributor
Retailer
Retailer
23
consumers (McLaughlin 1). For instance, a Valrhona representative Pierre Cantrel
explains, “We think of chocolate the same way people would think of wine. Specific
weather conditions and soil affect the final taste”, so Valrhona includes a 24-page
booklet on cacao farming with purchase. Retailers (7-11, Wellcome, Geant, Costco,
and Tesco) are starting to promote their own private label chocolates.
FIRDI found that the main consumers of chocolate range between the ages of 15
and 29 (4). The owner of Chocoholic also confirmed that most of his customers are
women in their 20s. Since more Taiwanese women have entered the workforce, they
are prime consumers. Like Japan, Taiwan has a large population of young working
women who live still live with their parents; thus, they have low living expenses and
have most of their income available for self-purchases. Marketing officer of the Tokyo
Prince Hotel, Nana Ohtsuka, observes, “An increasing number of women in their 20s
and 30s want to reward themselves. They want to spend money on themselves” (AFP
5). In China, women also tend to spend 21.5% more on candy than men (Datamonitor).
Based on Japan’s Chocolate and Cocoa Association statistics on chocolate
consumption from the past thirty years, I estimated Taiwan’s growth in per capita
demand for the next fifty years. From 1973 to 1983, Japan’s consumption increased by
15.52%; 1983-1993, 22.39%; 1993-2003, 12.20%. I used the same increases for
Taiwan from 2007 to 2037. For the last two years, I used the arithmetic mean to
estimate increases in per capita consumption. Assuming no major economic downturns
in Taiwan, chocolate consumption should increase steadily as shown below. Taiwan’s
chocolate consumption will probably not increase as exponentially as Switzerland’s
due to the island’s climate and lack of chocolate manufacturers. Climate is one of the
dependent variables in chocolate consumption; however, since the weather cannot be
changed, I will have to focus on other factors such as income and culture. Nonetheless,
24
some scientists predict that the global atmosphere is entering a cold weather phase as
shown in Exhibit 8, which may be good news for chocolate suppliers (Xinhua News
Agency).
Trend in per capita consumption of chocolate in Taiwan
1
1.16
1.41
1.59
1.85
2.16
0
1
1
2
2
3
2007 2017 2027 2037 2047 2057
Time
3.2.2 Supply-Demand Forecasts
Since cocoa beans are essential in the production of chocolate, the supplies and
prices of the beans are useful in the forecasting of future demands for chocolate. Based
on the average cocoa prices given by the International Cocoa Organization website and
the average difference between the LMC’s forecasted prices, an estimate of future
prices until 2010 can be projected. Assuming no major disruptions to cocoa supplies
due to political instability in the southern countries (West Africa, SE Asia) or natural
disasters where the beans are grown, prices should remain stable. Economists
extrapolate demand by assessing the volume of grindings—cocoa beans processed.
The LMC estimated their prices based on the stock-grind ratio with demand growing at
1.5% per annum; cocoa prices are inversely related to the stocks-grind ratio. On a
more conservative estimation, I assumed growth at 1.10% for global grindings. The
surplus/deficit—current net world crop (gross crop adjusted by subtracting 1% for loss
25
in weight) minus grindings—given by the ICCO in its 2007 forecast was used to
estimate future gross crop quantities. Global stocks were derived from the LMC’s
stock-grind ratio because they were closer to past stock-grind ratios. Below are the
supply and demand balances to 2010 assuming demand growth of 1.10% per annum:
Year
Average
Cocoa
Price
(US$)
Gross
Crop
(1000
tonnes)
Global
Grindings
(1.10%
demand
growth) Surplus/Deficit
Global
Stocks
(1000
tonnes)
Stock:Grind
Ratio
2000/01 $672.76 2,858 3,063 -234 1,164 38.0%
2001/02 $855.17 2,868 2,886 -47 1,117 38.7%
2002/03 $1,369.17 3,171 3,063 76 1,193 38.9%
2003/04 $1,256.28 3,539 3,214 290 1,483 46.1%
2004/05 $1,045.09 3,328 3,315 -20 1,463 44.1%
2005/06 $1,040.50 3,674 3,462 175 1,376 39.7%
2006/07 $1,077.74 3,428 3,497 -103 1,519 43.4%
2007/08 $1,023.83 3,600 3,532 32 1,497 42.4%
2008/09 $1,149.83 3,665 3,567 61 1,406 39.4%
2009/10 $1,269.83 3,692 3,603 53 1,327 36.8%
According to the LMC, the lowest demand for a decade in the past fifty years was 0.4%
from 1968/69 to 1977/78 (Gray 24). In 2010, global stock balances are expected to
increase to approximately 1.33 million tonnes, while the stock-grind ratio will decrease
to ~36.8%. Exhibit 5 shows the Flowchart for the Cocoa industry provided by Weymar
(2).
Supply-Demand Forecasts to 2010 with 1.10% Demand Growth
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
2000/01
2001/02
2002/03
2003/04
2004/05
2005/06
2006/07
2007/08
2008/09
2009/10
Production/Consumption
-300
-200
-100
0
100
200
300
400
Surplus/Deficit
Surplus/Deficit
Global Grindings (1.10% demand
growth)
Gross Crop (1000 tonnes)
26
With demand growth at 1.10%, I expect cocoa prices to rise from the 2000/01 low of
$672.76 US per tonne to approximately $1,269 US in the next three years. By 2010,
production and consumption will have increased to approximately 3.7 million tonnes,
over a half million above balances at the beginning of the decade.
Forecasts of Price and Stock-Grind Ratio with Demand Growth
$0.00
$200.00
$400.00
$600.00
$800.00
$1,000.00
$1,200.00
$1,400.00
$1,600.00
2000/01
2001/02
2002/03
2003/04
2004/05
2005/06
2006/07
2007/08
2008/09
2009/10
Price
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
35.0%
40.0%
45.0%
50.0%
Stock:Grind Ratio
Stock:Grind Ratio
Average Cocoa Price (US$)
3.2.3 Cocoa Prices
Global stocks also tend to affect the commodity prices of cocoa beans; however,
the consolidation of the chocolate industry has enabled manufacturers to reduce their
stocks (MC/6/4 4). The ICCO’s 2001/02 informal survey on manufacturers’ inventory
levels indicated that normal factory stocks for Asia are three weeks of annual grindings
in comparison to Western Europe’s one week. Some European manufacturers’
warehouses for the beans are close enough to the processing plants, so that they can
follow just-in-time inventory management systems. Exhibit 6 shows Frank Weymar’s
Marginal Inventory Holding Cost versus Manufacturer Inventories (110). According to
Weymar’s calculations, the marginal inventory holding cost (C) is equal to the
marginal cost of warehousing storage (CS) minus the marginal convenience yields of
insurance against stockouts (RS) and being over/under covered (RC). At low inventory
levels, C is negative because of high RS and RC; however, as inventory levels increase,
27
RS and RC fall to 0 with C=CS. As inventory levels continue to increase, C also
increases because of saturation in CS so that RS and RC fall below zero (109). In
deciding inventory levels, chocolate manufacturers estimate the difference between the
current and forecasted prices; in the long run, the manufacturers will balance their
inventories to the point where C equals the forecasted price rate change (111).
Weymar also indicated the supply of storage function in linear form (159):
Pt* - Pt = a It - I
Pt Ct C
Pt*= Forecasted price
Pt = Current price
It = Inventory
Ct = Consumption
a = Weighting co-efficient in distributed lag function
3.3 Future Issues
While cocoa prices affect the cost of chocolate, other factors come into play in
pricing. In 1990, the ICCO estimated the percentage cost of cocoa in a bar of chocolate
as being from 10-15% by using BCCCA statistics, which Barry Callebut concurs with.
Nonetheless, the amount of cocoa, and thus costs, also highly depends on the quality
the manufacturer wants to produce. Based on the ICCO’s costs per tonne calculations,
below are the cost percentages of a generic candy bar:
Ingredients Cost
Cocoa mass NT$0.74
Cocoa butter NT$1.77
Milk NT$1.73
Sugar NT$1.00
Vegetable Fat NT$0.55
Manufacturing
Selling Price NT$16.88
Distributor Margins NT$5.33
Retail price NT$28
Any sustained cost increases in upstream cocoa processing are then passed down to the
consumer with incremental increases in price; as a result, developing countries may
28
have more elastic preferences for chocolate. However, the European Union’s recent
acceptance of vegetable oil, a cheaper substitution for cocoa butter, in chocolate may
benefit Taiwanese consumers because vegetable oil’s higher melting points allow
chocolate storage in hot climates as well as keeping prices low. Normally, cocoa butter
and liquor are used to make chocolate, while cocoa powder is used for beverages.
Gourmet chocolate contains at least 70% cocoa, but most mass distributed candy only
contains 20% cocoa (Oxfam 23). The largest cocoa grinders are based in the US,
Netherlands, and the Ivory Coast. Below is the cocoa processing chain (Exhibit 9
shows the entire value chain as well as the corresponding profit margins):
Cocoa beans (1 metric tonne)
Fermenting & cleaning
Fermented and dried cocoa beans
Grinding
Roasted nib
Roasting & winnowing
Cocoa liquor
Pressing & milling
Cocoa butter (370 kg) Cocoa powder (425 kg)
IV. Research Results
4.1 Sample Profiles
Of the respondents, 34.7% consumed chocolate 5 times or more per week, so I
could be fairly sure I was reaching my target demographic. The favorite chocolate
product to purchase was cake (23.10%), which appears to support Stella Huang’s
decision to open Awfully Chocolate. Most of the respondents had not been to the
longest lasting chocolate cafe, Chocoholic; only 16% of the respondents said they had
visited.
29
Frequency in consumption
14.2%
22.4%
21.1%
7.5%
34.7%
1
2
3
4
5 or more
The majority of the respondents were female (86%), confirming Godiva Asia’s
observation, “A remarkable trend is that young girls are willing to spend more on
quality chocolates… Premium chocolates are not just a gift-giving decision but a
reward for customers themselves” (Lin), which supports BCG’s “New Luxury” theory.
93% of the respondents were single, and 71% between the ages of 21-30—an
observation also made by Chocoholic’s owner. While this may not be the customer
base for iR Choco Cafe or Chocozing, it is for the other cafes. The sample profile
might be questioned for its resemblance to chocolate spenders because most of the
respondents were students (72.7%), but students are also the ones who have plenty of
leisure time, few expenses, and discretional spending money. In addition, Taiwanese
adults tend to stay “students” for a longer period of time than most Americans.
Students were also the respondents who could name high-end brands such as
Charlemagne, Valrhona, Neuhaus, Mary’s, and Peninsula; the working professionals
were not as brand savvy. The analysis used correlation analysis, the t-test, and general
linear model univariate analysis to determine if the proxy for income elasticity proxy
had an effect on the frequency of visits or if other factors influenced chocolate
30
consumption.
4.2 Descriptive Statistics
4.2.1 Correlation Analysis
Correlations
1 -.015
. .857
147 147
-.015 1
.857 .
147 147
Pearson Correlation
Sig. (2-tailed)
N
Pearson Correlation
Sig. (2-tailed)
N
frequency
Elasticity
frequency Elasticity
Since the coefficient is less than zero, there is no linear relationship between
frequency and the income elasticity proxy. -.015 indicates that as frequency increases,
the income elasticity proxy decreases because a negative pearson’s r suggests that the
two variables covary in opposite directions. Moreover, income elasticity of demand EY
indicates the percentage change in quantity demanded resulting from a given
percentage change in income (Krugman and Obstfeld). A proxy for the income
elasticity can be calculated as:
EY = % Δ in quantity demanded (100% - 84%)
% Δ in income 8.33%
Since the demand moves from 84% to 100% after the respondents receive their salaries,
the change in quantity demanded is estimated to be 16%. The change in income moves
from 0 to 1/12 of the individual’s salary. Since the proxy of EY is greater than 1, the
chocolate café is, as assumed, a luxury item. This is also supported by Business Asia’s
report:
Asian consumption of chocolate dropped by around 20% last year during the
height of the [Asian financial] crisis… Mr. Ian Chan, marketing manager of
Sime Darby Edible Products, said chocolate consumption took a hit in Asia last
year [1998] because the food was seen as a luxury item (Koetsawang).
31
Most of the respondents who were students probably had income levels less than
$20,000 NT per month. In Chang-Ching and Quei-Miao Tsai’s study, they found that
most of the female consumers in their mid-20s had monthly salaries of $20,000-40,000
NT (主題式休閒餐廳之服務品質要素、意象及滿意度認知之研究). With these
lower income levels, quantity sold falls by a larger percentage than income. The
respondents in their late twenties probably had income levels less than $80,000 NT per
month, so that their higher income means that quantity demanded rises by a larger
percentage than income. For comparison, Japan’s short-term income elasticity for
chocolate is 0.329 while long-term is 0.529 (ICCO website). Exhibit 7 shows the
short-term supply and demand for chocolate. In terms of per capita consumption, the
income elasticity of demand for chocolate is at 0.02 (Jason 686). It appears that the
mildly addictive nature of chocolate does not make it a non-cyclical good. Instead, as a
luxury good item, the chocolate cafe is more likely a cyclical product like Starbucks.
From Godiva and Lindt’s annual reports, their sales numbers indicate that high-end
chocolate is not a countercyclical good like lipstick.
4.2.2 t-test
Using the independent samples t-test, I will determine if the sex of the
individual has an effect on frequency or the income elasticity proxy: 1 indicates female,
while 0 indicates male. Since the 2-tailed significance is greater than .05, this also
shows that frequency and the income elasticity proxy are not statistically significant
between the two sexes. Since the significance of frequency is greater than .05, the null
hypothesis is accepted and homogeneity of variance assumption is accepted. However,
it is less than .05 for the income elasticity proxy, so the variances are significantly
different. It appears that women are more conservative with their money since 17.46%
of women indicated that they would wait to spend their money on chocolate. However,
32
there were less males that responded to the survey—possibility because they did not
enjoy chocolate as much as the opposite sex.
Group Statistics
126 3.33 1.480 .132
21 2.86 1.493 .326
126 .17 .381 .034
21 .10 .301 .066
SEX
1
0
1
0
frequency
Elasticity
N Mean Std. Deviation Std. Error Mean
Independent Samples Test
.092 .762 1.341 145 .182 .47 .349 -.222 1.158
1.332 26.970 .194 .47 .351 -.253 1.189
3.950 .049 .907 145 .366 .08 .087 -.094 .252
1.074 31.772 .291 .08 .074 -.071 .230
Equal variances assum
Equal variances not a
Equal variances assum
Equal variances not a
frequenc
Elasticity
F Sig.
vene's Test for Equali
of Variances
t df Sig. (2-taileMd)ean Differenc
Std. Error
Difference Lower Upper
5% Confidence Interva
of the Difference
t-test for Equality of Means
4.2.3 GLM Univariate Analysis of Variance
If the proxy for income elasticity is not a factor in the purchasing of luxury
chocolate, the other factor I tested was emotion. The BBC notes that chocolate
contains tryptophan, a chemical that the brain uses for the neurotransmitter serotonin,
which is a mood elevator. In addition, chocolate also contains phenylethylamine,
which acts as an amphetamine. Both of these chemicals increase levels of elation, so
that respondents could consume more chocolate when they are feeling a certain way.
33
Tests of Between-Subjects Effects
Dependent Variable: frequency
43.705a 21 2.081 .934 .549 .136
238.581 1 238.581 107.094 .000 .461
23.961 13 1.843 .827 .631 .079
.257 1 .257 .115 .735 .001
20.007 7 2.858 1.283 .264 .067
278.472 125 2.228
1883.000 147
322.177 146
Source
Corrected Model
Intercept
EMOTIONS
ELASTICI
EMOTIONS * ELASTICI
Error
Total
Corrected Total
Type III Sum
of Squares df Mean Square F Sig.
Partial Eta
Squared
a. R Squared = .136 (Adjusted R Squared = -.010)
The significance value for each term is more than 0.05, so each factor is not statistically
significant. Thus, neither emotion nor the income elasticity proxy alone have an effect
on the consumer’s consumption of chocolate. The partial eta squared statistic reports
the “practical” significance of each term, based upon the ratio of the variation
accounted for by the term, to the sum of the variation accounted for by the term and the
variation left to error. Larger values of partial eta squared indicate a greater amount of
variation accounted for by the model term, to a maximum of 1. While not statistically
significant, the partial eta squared for emotion*elasticity may have an effect on weekly
consumption levels. Together, the two factors may have some effect on the amount of
times the respondent consumes chocolate.
4.2.4 Profile Plots
Estimated Marginal Means of frequency
Non-estimable means are not plotted
EMOTIONS
yang
thinking
stressed
sad
positive
PMS
negative
hungry
happy
dual
celebrating
anytime
afternoon
0
Estimated Marginal Means
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
Elasticity
0
1
34
“Anytime” means that the participant did not have a single emotion that dictated when
she ate chocolate; “dual emotions” were when the respondent answered with variations
in negative and positive emotions: happy/sad, happy/stressed, ect. If there were no
interaction effect, the lines in the table would be parallel. Instead, there is a difference
in the amount of chocolate consumed per week between the two factors. For those that
responded to the income elasticity proxy question with a “no” (0), they had a sharper
rise in the line for the emotions starting from celebrating, hungry, and sad. They also
peaked during “dual”, negative, and positive emotions. The respondents with the
answer “yes” (1) to income elasticity proxy had a sharper rise at “anytime” and PMS,
but peaked during times of celebration and positive feelings. This could be because
while the respondent may have budget concerns, during periods of celebration for a
friend or relative (eg. birthdays, graduation, anniversaries), cost is not a heavy factor on
the mind of the participant.
Emotions
27.0%
15.8%
17.8%
24.5%
14.9%
Happy
Sad
Celebrating
Stressed
Other
Since the answer to Question 10 (您在什麼時候會想吃巧克力?) was so varied with
respondents being able to choose more than one emotion, there is not a definitive
emotion that will induce consumers to buy chocolate. The only possible pattern is that
35
income elasticity proxy’s influence on frequency of consumption may be lessened by
celebratory emotions.
4.3 Empirical Results
Below are the participants’ responses to what are their favorite foods, purchases,
orders, and recommendations for the menu. The customers’ favorite foods other than
chocolate are carbohydrates (pasta, bread, rice, ect.) followed by fruit. Other than the
purchase of chocolate and cake, customers tended to buy cookies (15%) and brownies
(6.8%). When the respondents went to a chocolate café, they usually ordered cake
(22.4%), hot chocolate (14.3%), or candy (12.9%). However, those responses might be
influenced by the choices the participants had. Since the chocolate cafes only offered
these items, the participant could only purchase what was on the menu. The
respondents recommended that the owners add more cake (12.9%) and candy (12.2%).
If one simply looks at the tables for the most frequent answer, cake would come up the
most. However, Awfully Chocolate has taken the cake position. If the café owners
wanted to differentiate themselves, they could offer more varieties of chocolate cake
because Awfully Chocolate only offers three kinds: regular, banana, or cherry.
36
Cake might fulfill the needs of the participants’ favorite foods—chocolate and
carbohydrates. The MIT biochemist Dr. Judith Wurtman proposes that those who
crave these food items are probably deficient in the brain chemical serotonin, which is
produced when starch is eaten (Hall). However, fruit might be more of a Taiwanese
taste since those were the only other choices on the menu of Awfully Chocolate as well
as coming in third for favorite food item. Swiss exporters have noticed that the Asian
population’s taste tends to differ from the European’s: a Nestle representative states,
“Asian populations find European-style chocolate too heavy… rather than traditional
solid chocolate bars, we’ve been most successful with chocolate-covered products like
37
our Kit-Kat wafers” (Hansen 2). This observation is also attested by the owner of 70%
Chocolate café:「台灣不喜歡太甜太重的味道。」 Thus, Kit-Kat comes in a variety
of assortments in Japan and Taiwan—green tea, strawberry, red bean, apple, and other
fruit varieties—in order to accommodate the less sweet taste of the Asian consumer.
Taiwanese tastes might be more akin to the Japanese: Meiji’s Shuntaro Okabe states,
“Japanese like their chocolate to have a creamy flavor, whereas Europeans prefer a
caramelized flavor”; thus, they tend to prefer the lighter Ghanian cocoa bean to the
Mexican (Kennedy). The International Cocoa Organization also remarks that
strawberry flavored chocolate is particularly popular in Japan (“Generic Promotion” 3).
If they have not already done so, the café owners may want to consider decreasing the
amount of sugar in their chocolate items by offering chocolate covered products as well,
such as chocolate covered fruit. It appears that any variation of carbohydrates does
well in consumer spending as cookies and brownies were most purchased after cake
and candy.
38
Since no beverages appear in favorite food item or purchase, the café owners may want
to rethink having such a heavy emphasis on beverages. Chocozing, 70% Chocolate
Café, Chocoholic, and iR Choco Café’s menus contain over 50% beverage items.
Instead of looking at what the customer ordered because it is heavily skewed towards
what the menu options are, favorite food items, purchases, and recommendations
should be considered. Furthermore, Chocosuisse—the union of Swiss Chocolate
Manufacturers—provides the following information: “Asian consumers also show a
disproportionate preference for milk chocolate as opposed to the less-sweet dark
chocolate which has a big market in Europe” (qtd. in Hansen 2), which might be
because milk chocolate is the flavor that Taiwanese consumers grew up eating since
they did not have choices in imported dark chocolate varieties until recently. Thus, the
café owners may also want to educate their consumers on the varieties of chocolate like
the chocolate manufacturers do during factory tours. For instance, La Maison du
Chocolat has powerpoint presentations on growing regions, harvesting, and
manufacturing techniques for its chocolate patrons (McLaughlin 1). The owner of 70%
Chocolate café made the following adjustment to his recipes for the Taiwan consumer:
「台灣人不太喜歡黑朱古力的苦澀,但一般白朱力又太甜 ,我們就加入抹茶將
它中和。」The Taiwanese do not like the bitter taste of dark chocolate, but white
chocolate is too sweet for their palates, so we added Matcha Green Tea to neutralize the
flavour (旅行啦!).
39
40
V. Conclusion
5.1 Findings
It remains to be seen whether the chocolate café can last in Taiwan, but for the
short-term, the venture appears profitable. As a cyclical good, the chocolate café faces
the same economic downturns that Starbucks grapples with, but that does not
necessarily make it an unattractive industry. Since Chocoholic was able to open a
second café even with Taiwan’s stagnant growth, the industry appears viable. As BCG
notes, “The most important socio-economic drivers of Trading Up—including
increased wealth, changes to family structure, and the heightened influence of
41
women—have not changed” (4), which can also be applied to Taiwan’s market.
Income levels are increasing and culture can be changed with marketing, so that
increasing chocolate consumption is a viable trend in Taiwan. The service industry
will continue to have an important role in the economic development of the island, and
the chocolate café may be part of the service industry. In order to survive in this
industry, the chocolate café owners may want to implement some of the suggestions
made by customers—adding more carbohydrate items. Assuming the respondents were
honest in their answers, these chocolate lovers may be willing to spend more on high
carbohydrate items since the income elasticity proxy does not appear to be a factor in
their purchasing decisions in the short run. Co-branding with chocolate suppliers may
also enhance the chocolate café’s image in the eyes of the consumer since Godiva has
also entered the café industry; the success or failure of Godiva café will be a good
indicator of the future viability of the chocolate cafe.
5.2 Recommendations
5.2.1 Based on survey
The owners should probably offer more carbohydrate items such as brownies or
cookies if they do not want to expand their cake selection since carbohydrates are so
emphasized in the above survey. In addition, the owners may want to co-brand their
food selection with famous chocolate brands. While Chocozing has added Valrhona to
her ice cream selection because it appears decadent at $20 NT per ounce, the others
have not followed suit. The café owners could sell more branded products because
popular chocolate manufacturers will promote their own chocolate products, so that the
café owners can avoid advertising fees. As one tester of Truitt’s study noted, “None of
these tasted as good as I think chocolate should taste. Maybe it’s context. I know that
things taste better coming from a Godiva box” (Slate), which is also the number one
42
brand to appear on my survey; Godiva appeared 12.2% of the time. If the owners are
unable to sell Godiva branded products due to competition with Godiva’s café, they
might want to try Lindt’s Ghirardelli because it appears 6.8% of the time. Moreover, if
the owners were not worried about lowering their premium image a little, they might
want to start cooking with the Italian Ferrero Rocher products since it has such a high
market share. It also advertises heavily on television, so that everyone recognizes its
gold chocolates. The café owners should keep Hsieh’s observation in mind: “Taiwan’s
consumers are not yet savvy enough to tell good quality from bad. As a result,
marketing campaigns easily lure customers away to competing brands” (天下). For
instance, Godiva has rolled out “chocolate schools” for its 28 stores across Asia
(Sudhaman 20). Another way to market the cafes would be as a date destination since
Taiwan has three Valentines in one year including Lantern Festival Day (元宵節) and
The Night of Sevens (七夕); the owners should take advantage of the holidays for
chocolate gift giving as Japan has done. Since chocolate is not a necessity, marketing
has a huge impact on the sales of chocolate products. For instance, the European
countries with consumption levels at 3-4 kg per capita, Italy and Spain, have to
occasionally remind its consumers about chocolate. Spain had to launch a campaign
with the slogan, “Life is short, let’s make the most of it; let’s learn to appreciate the full
flavour of chocolate” in order to reignite sales, while Italy promoted chocolate’s health
benefits (ICCO website).
5.2.2 Pre-emption strategies
In addition to the generic Porter strategies of differentiation and segmentation,
the incumbent café owners may also want to take a cue from Starbuck’s cluster strategy
in order to prevent new entrants from entering the market. Northwestern Kellogg
School of Management professors described the pre-emption, “Each urban market
43
would become the starting point for further expansion into suburbs and smaller metro
areas, following a hub-and-spoke pattern” (Gulati et al.). According to a class-action
suit filed by Hagens Berman Sobol Shapiro LLP, in Seattle downtown’s 2-mile radius,
Starbucks rents 69% of the buildings (Stafford 8). The café owners do not necessarily
have to cannibalize their stores like Starbucks does but once a café has enough capital,
it may want to start expanding since none of them advertise. Starbucks also signs
exclusive lease agreements with property owners that prevent the landlords from
renting building space to other cafés. Nonetheless, Wu Cheng-hsueh’s (吳政學) 85°C
Cafe has exceeded Starbucks’ 23% market share in Taiwan by 7% with a disruptioninnovation
strategy—the enhancement of an inexpensive product in order to take over
the low-end segment. Starbucks Taiwan president John Hsu considers 85°C's
distribution strategy as, “They avoid confrontation. At the moment, less than five
85°Cs directly compete with Starbucks” (Lee). The chocolate cafes should probably
also avoid directly competing with Starbucks since Starbucks still dominates the
Taiwan market and instead focus on the high-end segment since imported chocolate is
seen as a luxury item.
5.2.3 Location
The old cliché of “location, location, location” for the real estate market is just
as important in the café business. Even though it has become accepted theory for
competitors to locate near one another because of H. Hotelling’s “Stability in
Competition”, d’Aspremont et. al have proven that Hotelling’s theory is wrong, except
in political cases without transportation costs, because of a mathematical error. Similar
to the Porter’s idea that competitors need to maximize the perceived differentiation
between one another, “On Hotelling’s Stability in Competition” explains that
competitors should also maximize their store distances because they would presumably
44
monopolize that share of the submarket. For instance, Chocoholic should stay in the
Daan (大安) district, while Awfully Chocolate monopolizes the Neihu area—instead of
directly competing for customers in overlapping neighbourhoods. The following
equation establishes d’Aspremont et al’s result (1148-1149):
q1(p1, p2) = a + p2 - p1 + l – a – b , if 0 ≤ a + p2 - p1 + l – a – b
2c(l-a-b) 2 2c(l-a-b) 2
=l, if a + p2 - p1 + l – a – b > l
2c(l-a-b) 2
=0, if a + p2 - p1 + l – a – b < 0
2c(l-a-b) 2
p = c (l-a-b) l + a – b
3
l= length of a line
a, b= respective distances
p= price
c= transportation cost
Similarly, b can substitute a before p2 - p1 + l – a – b for the second competitor.
2c(l-a-b) 2
At the end of the proof, (b-a)/3 can also replace the equation for the second competitor.
It is assumed that costs are quadratic with respect to distance. Thus, the greater the
transportation cost for the customer, the lesser the likelihood of the customer
patronizing the café father away from her home. The theory also explains why
neighborhood cafes have loyal customers from around the block: the costs are too high
for the locals to travel to cafés farther away. Naturally, Starbucks understands this
principle well enough to locate ubiquitously; its recent Annual Report states,
“Starbucks strategy is to reach customers where they work, travel, shop and dine” (qtd.
Stafford 7). Nevertheless, Giacomo Bonann demonstrated in “Location Choice,
Product Proliferation and Entry Deterrence” that location is more important than
product proliferation—especially for new entrants in the emerging chocolate café
45
industry. If s stands for the number of stores and x is the corresponding vector of
locations, the following is derived (43-44):
π(s,x) ≤ π*(s)
π*(s) ≤ π*(3)
π*(3) < π2
p1= p2 = r-c(1-2a*)2/4
π0 = r-c(1-2a*)2/4-2K
π2 ≥ π0
π*(3) = r-c/36-3K
K > c f(a*)
f(a*) = (2+9a*2-9a*)/9
π(s,x) is the incumbent café’s(Chocoholic) monopoly profits; K, set-up cost for each
cafe; r, consumer’s reservation price; a*, a compact interval containing the point 15
.
From the range of
14
225 c < K < 9
128 c, a* ∈ (15
, 14
). On the left are the profits from brand
proliferation; on the right are the profits from three well-selected locations. Moreover,
π2 are the profits from the location strategy assuming that even two cafes can deter
entry. Chocoholic can set the price at r-c(1-2a*)2/4 for each location with r-c(1-
2a*)2/4-2K as the profit from one cafe.
Hong Kong, a similar city to Taipei, includes five Leonidas cafes as well as a
few independent cafes: Monde Chocolatier, Chocolux, and La Vie en Rose. However,
the city’s most famous and presumably most prosperous ones are located in hotels such
as The Peninsula, Mandarin Oriental, and the Regent. Like the Taiwanese, Hong
Kong inhabitants have a predilection for hotel buffets and dining. Taking into
consideration that chocolate is perceived as a luxury item, the café owners may want to
locate in high-end hotels that do not already have cafes available. In addition, the
chocolate café owners can also take advantage of areas where women tend to
46
congregate since they are chocolate’s most loyal customers, for instance, department
stores—another luxury destination.
5.3 Opportunities
• Currently, brand loyalty for chocolate is weak because consumer demand can be
heavily influenced by effective marketing campaigns. Frequently, a brand’s
sales increase when there is a strong marketing campaign, but then decline after
the campaign. According to FIRDI’s market research, 75% of Taiwan
consumers hear about chocolate from TV commercials; 49%, in-store
promotions; 12%, newspapers/magazines (4). In Japan, television is mostly
used for the 3,000 new chocolate products launched every year (“Generic
Promotion” 3).
• High quality and attractive packaging are key success factors in the Taiwan
chocolate market. Slate Magazine’s Eliza Truitt concluded that in a blind taste
test on chocolate, “packaging and expectation matter, and the more expensive
the chocolate, the better the packaging and the higher the expectations”.
5.4 Research Limitations
Naturally, there are research limitations to this study because the chocolate café
is an emerging trend—not only in Taiwan but also worldwide. Most of the current
market studies are over hundreds of US dollars, which I could not obtain. In addition,
the chocolate industry is not of scholarly scientific interest, so there is not much
secondary academic literature on the subject. Instead, most scholarly studies are
focused on the upstream cocoa bean and its commodity pricing models or the
improvement of cocoa agro-economics. Since I could not gain access to the café
owner’s in-depth data, I also had to make due with an exploratory survey on the
chocolate café industry. While the industry could be researched in more detail, I
47
assume that large chocolate manufacturers and retailers such as Godiva, Mars Inc.,
Thorntons already have this data but will not be releasing the information to the public.
48
Appendix
Survey
1. 您最喜歡的食物是什麼?
2. 您一個禮拜會吃幾次巧克力?(連餅乾、冰淇淋、熱巧克力、等、等...)
□ 不到一次 □一次 □二次 □三次 □四次 □五次以上
3. 您最愛買哪一種巧克力產品? □蛋糕 □冰淇淋 □餅乾
□布朗尼 □甜甜圈 □糖果 □巧克力火鍋
□其他 □品牌
4. 您最喜歡去哪一家巧克力專賣店?
5. 您曾經去過「巧克哈客」嗎? □是 □否
6. 幾次? □不到一次 □一次 □二次 □三次 □四次 □五次以上
7. 您通常會點什麼巧克力產品?
8. 您會推薦什麼樣的巧克力產品在店家的目錄?
9. 您有去過國外的巧克力專賣店嗎? □Ghirardelli □Citizen Cake □Jacques
Torres □The Chocolate Bar □Serendipity □其他
10. 您在什麼時候會想吃巧克力? □開心 □傷心 □慶祝
□壓力大 □其他
11. 您會等到拿到薪水才去巧克力專飲店消費嗎?□是 □否
12. 您通常會跟誰去巧克力專賣店?□朋友 □家人 □男女朋友
□自己 其它
13. 您的性別:□男 □女
14. 您的婚姻狀況:□未婚 □已婚
15. 您的年齡:□20 以下 □21~30 □31~40 □41~50 □51 以上
49
16. 您的最高學歷? □高中 □大學 □碩士 □博士
17. 您的工作類別? □學生 □進出 □公教人員 □貿易 □管裡
□服務業 □商業貿易 □電子業 □農魚業 □藝術
其它
~感謝您的作答~
50
Univariate Analysis of Variance
Descriptive Statistics
Dependent Variable: frequency
3.00 . 1
3.00 . 1
3.00 . 1
3.00 . 1
3.35 1.544 54
3.33 1.581 9
3.35 1.536 63
2.00 . 1
5.00 .000 2
4.00 1.732 3
3.53 1.506 15
2.86 1.464 7
3.32 1.492 22
3.10 1.683 20
3.10 1.683 20
2.00 . 1
2.00 . 1
5.00 .000 2
2.00 . 1
4.00 1.732 3
3.00 1.414 4
1.00 . 1
2.60 1.517 5
3.83 .983 6
5.00 .000 2
4.13 .991 8
1.00 . 1
2.00 . 1
1.50 .707 2
2.93 1.280 15
2.00 . 1
2.88 1.258 16
3.00 . 1
3.00 . 1
3.00 . 1
3.00 . 1
3.27 1.477 123
3.21 1.560 24
3.26 1.485 147
Elasticity
0
Total
0
Total
0
1
Total
0
1
Total
0
1
Total
0
Total
0
Total
0
1
Total
0
1
Total
0
1
Total
0
1
Total
0
1
Total
0
Total
0
Total
0
1
Total
EMOTIONS
0
afternoon
anytime
celebrating
dual
happy
hungry
negative
PMS
positive
sad
stressed
thinking
yang
Total
Mean Std. Deviation N
Levene's Test of Equality of Error Variances a
Dependent Variable: frequency
3.320 21 125 .000
F df1 df2 Sig.
Tests the null hypothesis that the error variance of the dependent
variable is equal across groups.
Design: Intercept+EMOTIONS+ELASTICI+EMOTIONS
* ELASTICI
a.
51
Between-Subjects Factors
1
1
63
3
22
20
1
3
5
8
2
16
1
1
123
24
0
afternoon
anytime
celebrating
dual
happy
hungry
negative
PMS
positive
sad
stressed
thinking
yang
EMOTIONS
0
1
Elasticity
N
Estimated Marginal Means
EMOTIONS * Elasticity
Dependent Variable: frequency
3.000 1.493 4.601E-02 5.954
.a . . .
3.000b 1.493 4.601E-02 5.954
.a . . .
3.352b .203 2.950 3.754
3.333b .498 2.349 4.318
2.000b 1.493 -.954 4.954
5.000b 1.055 2.911 7.089
3.533b .385 2.771 4.296
2.857b .564 1.741 3.974
3.100b .334 2.439 3.761
.a . . .
2.000b 1.493 -.954 4.954
.a . . .
5.000b 1.055 2.911 7.089
2.000b 1.493 -.954 4.954
3.000b .746 1.523 4.477
1.000b 1.493 -1.954 3.954
3.833b .609 2.627 5.039
5.000b 1.055 2.911 7.089
1.000b 1.493 -1.954 3.954
2.000b 1.493 -.954 4.954
2.933b .385 2.171 3.696
2.000b 1.493 -.954 4.954
3.000b 1.493 4.601E-02 5.954
.a . . .
3.000b 1.493 4.601E-02 5.954
.a . . .
Elasticity
0
1
0
1
0
1
0
1
0
1
0
1
0
1
0
1
0
1
0
1
0
1
0
1
0
1
0
1
EMOTIONS
0
afternoon
anytime
celebrating
dual
happy
hungry
negative
PMS
positive
sad
stressed
thinking
yang
Mean Std. Error Lower Bound Upper Bound
95% Confidence Interval
This level combination of factors is not observed, thus the corresponding
population marginal mean is not estimable.
a.
b. Based on modified population marginal mean.
52
您最愛買哪一種巧克力產品?
23.10%
5.44%
14.90%
6.80%
0.68%
19.70%
1.36%
10.20%
17.60%
蛋糕
冰淇淋
餅乾
布朗尼
甜甜圈
糖果
巧克力火鍋
其他
品牌
您曾經去過「巧克哈客」嗎?
16%
84%


您有去過國外的巧克力專賣店嗎?
8.40%
3.36%
1.68%
8.40%
0.84%
77.30%
Ghirardelli
Citizen Cake
Jacques Torres
The Chocolate Bar
Serendipity
諝赮
53
您會等到拿到薪水才去巧克力專飲店消費嗎?
16%
84%


您通常會跟誰去巧克力專賣店?
35%
10%
19%
28%
8%
朋友
家人
男女朋友
自己
其它
性別
14%
86%


54
婚姻狀況
93%
7%
未婚
已婚
年齡
24%
71%
4%
1%
20以下
21~30
31~40
41~50
最高學歷
3%
75%
20%
2%
高中
大學
碩士
博士
55
工作類別
72.70%
0.68%
4.76%
0.68%
11.50%
2.04%
0.68%
6.80%
學生
進出
公教人員
貿易
服務業
商業貿易
電子業
其它
Exhibit 1. World's top 10 global chocolate manufacturers
Company: Total Sales 2007 US$
Millions:
Cadbury Schweppes (UK) $10,534
Nestlé (Switzerland)
Kit Kat, Smarties, Crunch, After Eight $9,699
Mars Inc. (USA)
M&Ms, Milky Way, Snickers, Twix $9,500
Ferrero Group (Italy)
Kinder, Nutella, Mon Cheri $6,865
Hershey (USA)
Reese’s, 5th Avenue $4,976
Lindt & Sprungli (Switzerland)
Ghirardelli $2,046
Meiji Seika Kaisha Ltd. (Japan) $1,626
Kraft Foods (USA)
Milka, Toblerone $1,561
Barry Callebaut (Switzerland)
Gubor, Alprose $1,496
Lotte Confectionery Co (S. Korea) $893
56
Exhibit 2.
Trends in per capita consumption of chocolate in Switzerland
1
1.7
2.7 3
3.5
6.3
6.9
9
10
11.3
11.9
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
1905 1912 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
Time
Exhibit 3. Japanese statistics on chocolate production/consumption
Chocolate domestic consumption
Year
Domestic
sales (100
mil)
Import
(100 mil)
Export
(100 mil)
Domestic
consumption
(100 mil)
Valentine
Sales (100
mil)
1990 3,987 ¥336 ¥8 ¥4,315 ¥450
1991 4,421 ¥275 ¥12 ¥4,684 ¥480
1992 4,401 ¥283 ¥10 ¥4,674 ¥510
1993 4,203 ¥248 ¥7 ¥4,444 ¥490
1994 3,968 ¥270 ¥7 ¥4,231 ¥520
1995 4,077 ¥294 ¥6 ¥4,365 ¥490
1996 4,078 ¥347 ¥7 ¥4,418 ¥520
1997 3,985 ¥351 ¥10 ¥4,326 ¥520
1998 3,956 ¥338 ¥16 ¥4,278 ¥490
1999 4,160 ¥312 ¥19 ¥4,453 ¥470
2000 4,345 ¥339 ¥17 ¥4,667 ¥500
2001 4,205 ¥326 ¥20 ¥4,511 ¥520
2002 4,150 ¥354 ¥22 ¥4,482 ¥520
2003 4,125 ¥355 ¥24 ¥4,456 ¥530
2004 4,068 ¥368 ¥30 ¥4,406 ¥510
2005 4,066 ¥370 ¥37 ¥4,399 ¥530
1. Domestic consumption amount = product sales + import amount - export amount
2. Imports/Export sales: On the basis of customs clearance statistics
57
Exhibit 4. Chocolate product import/export values by country
US$
(000) Taiwan Japan S. Korea
Imports Exports Imports Exports Imports Exports
2001 $36,831 $640 $303,133 $17,041 $76,149 $26,861
2002 $40,475 $541 $298,851 $18,935 $92,593 $27,534
2003 $45,192 $517 $335,436 $22,535 $99,123 $32,294
2004 $48,291 $393 $369,931 $29,046 $109,047 $30,752
2005 $57,064 $601 $380,480 $35,438 $119,958 $33,592
US$
(000) Hong Kong China Singapore
Imports Exports Imports Exports Imports Exports
2001 $75,026 $33,456 $40,492 $10,605 $55,621 $81,108
2002 $80,264 $37,021 $41,945 $18,861 $64,604 $78,351
2003 $82,635 $30,736 $49,207 $28,639 $68,233 $95,816
2004 $88,400 $39,325 $61,258 $40,049 $76,248 $111,366
2005 $118,069 $45,925 $63,997 $46,463 $77,207 $128,216
58
Sales
Normal Price
Expectations
Consumption
Expectations
Exogenous Influences
on Consumption
Past Consumption
Consumption
Exhibit 5. Flowchart for Cocoa Industry
Exogenous Influences in
New Planting Price
New Planting
Productive Trees
Exogenous Influences
on Productive Trees
Production
Inventory
Expectations
Production Expectations
Exogenous Influences in Production
Past Prices
Inventory
59
Exhibit 6. Marginal Inventory Holding Cost versus Manufacturer Inventories
CS C = Marginal Inventory Holding Cost
CN = Normal Storage Cost
Storage Costs CS = Storage Costs
RS = Stockout Yield
RC = Coverage Yield
I = Aggregate Manufacturer Inventories
CN
0 I
C
Marginal Inventory Holding
RS Cost: C = CS – RS – RC
Stockout Yield
CN
0
I
I
RC
Coverage Yield
0 I
60
Exhibit 7. Short-term Supply and Demand for Chocolate
Price S
D
Quantity
Exhibit 8.
Taipei's historical June average temperatures (C)
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
1957
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
Date
61
Exhibit 9. Value Chain
Chocolate Market Cocoa Market
(powder)
Multinational Manufacturers
(Cadburys, Lindt)
Multinational Processors
(Cargill, ADM)
SE Asian Processors
(Malaysia,
Singapore)
Multinational traders
(ED&F Man)
Local farmers
(Ghana, Indonesia)
Profit Margins
Farming: 50%
Trading: 16%
Processing: 9-13%
Manufacturing: 11%
Chocolate café: 12%
62
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